Potential for dissemination of the nonnative salmonid parasite Myxobolus cerebralis in Alaska.

Myxobolus cerebralis, the myxozoan parasite responsible for whirling disease in salmonids, was first introduced into the United States in 1958 and has since spread across the country, causing severe declines in wild trout populations in the intermountain western United States. The recent detection of the parasite in Alaska is further evidence of the species' capability to invade and colonize new habitat. This study qualitatively assesses the risk of further spread and establishment of M. cerebralis in Alaska. We examine four potential routes of dissemination: human movement of fish, natural dispersal by salmonid predators and straying salmon, recreational activities, and commercial seafood processing. Potential for establishment was evaluated by examining water temperatures, spatial and temporal overlap of hosts, and the distribution and genetic composition of the oligochaete host, Tubifex tubifex. The most likely pathway of M. cerebralis transport in Alaska is human movement of fish by stocking. The extent of M. cerebralis infection in Alaskan salmonid populations is unknown, but if the parasite becomes dispersed, conditions are appropriate for establishment and propagation of the parasite life cycle in areas of south-central Alaska. The probability of further establishment is greatest in Ship Creek, where the abundance of susceptible T. tubifex, the presence of susceptible rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, and the proximity of this system to the known area of infection make conditions particularly suitable for spread of the parasite.